Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 20.321152 22.047012 23.908228 26.074395 28.538610 31.269466 34.545341
2025-09-21 17.423486 19.756402 22.443968 25.806853 29.956853 34.985601 41.660405
2025-09-28 16.042675 18.854775 22.276522 26.834464 32.888602 40.875399 52.619383
2025-10-05 14.530546 17.531616 21.334941 26.650864 34.139313 44.745897 61.822091
2025-10-12 13.429354 16.559850 20.665319 26.647101 35.527175 48.962105 72.596812
2025-10-19 12.651166 15.904148 20.303050 26.961448 37.347688 54.110224 86.425384
2025-10-26 11.869163 15.154224 19.708423 26.823128 38.398387 58.173121 99.667060
2025-11-02 11.162954 14.440395 19.081319 26.532679 39.116442 61.760527 113.294177
2025-11-09 10.612984 13.898803 18.645799 26.470618 40.177799 66.173039 130.649494
2025-11-16 10.090535 13.354839 18.153180 26.247227 40.897869 70.057017 148.643282
2025-11-23 9.618009 12.849891 17.675035 25.986796 41.494196 73.807325 168.399523
2025-11-30 9.200907 12.399652 17.244564 25.755934 42.100434 77.718150 191.193909
2025-12-07 8.830670 12.004816 16.882901 25.626331 42.927208 82.473093 221.009268
2025-12-14 8.446299 11.566915 16.422195 25.275680 43.257039 86.147030 250.415403
2025-12-21 8.344916 11.561474 16.665045 26.232622 46.514065 98.512162 332.740577
2025-12-28 8.040401 11.216880 16.316395 26.038472 47.200707 104.021236 390.338228
2026-01-04 7.791551 10.947584 16.076349 26.027907 48.308550 111.226498 472.679554
2026-01-11 7.612438 10.780752 15.999687 26.328688 50.211302 121.783169 608.174967
2026-01-18 7.376604 10.508828 15.721218 26.193830 51.018861 129.020118 742.477166
2026-01-25 7.134507 10.215238 15.386753 25.912716 51.411263 134.987166 892.090862
2026-02-01 6.940812 9.993430 15.167522 25.852541 52.380719 143.710924 1133.931963
2026-02-08 6.736919 9.745548 14.886962 25.636601 52.898050 150.929891 1417.993318
2026-02-15 6.540265 9.501849 14.601018 25.384889 53.281594 157.867830 1785.683173